Free Tool — Monte Carlo Simulator
Will this account survive?
Every trader thinks their edge is fine until variance says otherwise. Enter your real risk per trade, win rate, and reward:risk below — we'll run 2,000 simulated equity curves and tell you the honest odds.
$10,000
2%
42%
1.3R
150
35%
Probability of ruin over 150 trades31%
Chance this account falls 35% below its starting balance of $10,000 at some point across 2,000 simulated runs.
33%
Ends profitable
$8,980
Median final balance
$19,100
Best case
$260
Worst case
120 simulated equity curves
Median path
Survived
Ruined
Simulation only — risk per trade is a fixed dollar amount calculated from your starting balance, not recalculated as the account grows or shrinks, and assumes independent trade outcomes at a constant win rate and reward:risk. Real markets have streaks, correlation, and slippage this model doesn't capture. For informational purposes only, not financial advice.